Alyson Olivia. Spreadsheet. August 23rd , 2021.
A lot of portfolio back tests (and their resulting charts) are just silly. Any moron can go into a spreadsheet to find what worked best in the past (especially when cherry picking dates). But it takes some real thinking to work out a strategy that can deal with future unknown risks. You can’t optimize for returns going forward because you don’t know what those returns will be. So anyone designing a portfolio based only on what worked best in the past is making a major tactical error with their investments. A mistake that could destroy a retirement plan.
This is why I find it so absurd when some analyst or pundit claims that an asset like gold is ”worthless” in an investing portfolio because of some biased spreadsheet work they did. I wonder if these people have ever gotten far enough away from their spreadsheets to see how the world markets really work? Having some portfolio insurance like gold around is a really splendid idea. YES, the Forever Portfolio holds gold, silver and displays a good record with other assets likes stocks (mainly ETFs), bonds and cash. But what in history suggests this is not a good idea? Show me the flaw! Show me the data? It doesn’t matter what your chart is showed worked best over a particular time period. The fact is that concentrating your bets is dangerous, and sometimes your stocks and bonds don’t payout on your timetable. This is just how life works. I am finding out more each day. Diversifying a little bit is prudent.
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